The trade that went down between the Lions and Rams involving two former first overall selections in Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff is something that doesn’t happen too often in the NFL. In fact, due to the way the salary cap and NFL contracts are structured, trades are in large part somewhat of a rarity in one of the most popular leagues in the World.
Sometimes though you run into a situation like what we had this past weekend between the Lions and Rams, where a trade just simply makes sense. On the surface, it looks like it was a deal that benefits both sides somewhat equally, however, even in the most even of trades, there always tends to be a winner. So let’s take a look at who won this blockbuster of a deal in the NFL.
Matthew Stafford vs. Jared Goff
First lets take a look at just the two quarterbacks swapped.
Now offhand Goff‘s resume seems better considering the 26-year-old has two Pro Bowl’s under his belt to Stafford‘s one, has multiple playoff wins, took a team to the Super Bowl and has a better overall record (42-27-0 to 74-90-1).
However, all of Goff’s “positives” as compared to Stafford can be argued are in large part due to him simply playing on a better team while wins and losses are never a good way to judge the overall effectiveness of a QB much like it’s never a good way to judge the effectiveness of a pitcher in baseball.
Beyond some of the deceptiveness of wins and losses and Pro Bowl appearances, Stafford is simply a better QB statistically than Goff. Likewise, Stafford will be going to a system utilized by Sean McVay that’ll continue to play into Stafford’s strengths of stretching the field while Goff will be heading into a situation that’s relatively unknown considering the only thing we know about new Lions head coach Dan Campbell is his appetite for knee caps.
That’s not to say Goff is a bad QB. He isn’t. It’s just we know what Stafford is capable of in a bad system and we know he can raise that floor with the Rams. This with a head coach and offensive scheme that’s already in place for him to continue to make a difference on the football field.
Advantage: Rams
The Financials
This is where things get a little murkier and could go either way with a winner based on the current conditions of each team.
Again, offhand the Rams would appear to be big winners here by finding a trade partner to unload Goff’s massive contract. That includes $43 million in guaranteed money heading Goff’s way over the course of the next two years while Stafford is also due $43 million over the next two years as well, however, none of that is guaranteed.
Meanwhile, the Lions will take on $17.8 million in dead money for Stafford while the Rams will assume $22.2 million in dead money for Goff in 2021, a number that could’ve been a whole hell of a lot higher if they chose to cut him rather than trade him. So the Lions did the Rams a huge solid here by taking on one of the worst contracts in the entire NFL.
The kicker to all of this though for the Lions is it doesn’t matter.
Detroit knows they’re in a long-term rebuild and the cap hits compiled with the dead money really don’t mean a whole lot for them. Besides that, Goff can be cut after two years for essentially nothing so at the very least he provides them with a bridge to their next QB whoever that may be. If Goff does better than expected, then the Lions are presented with even more options.
For the Rams, things get a little more cumbersome when it comes to the cap considering they’ll now have roughly $140 million tied up in six players with the salary cap expected to decrease to $180 million in 2021. That doesn’t include the $22.2 million tied up in Goff and another $8.4 million in Todd Gurley, however, they still are able to rid themselves of Goff’s guarantees, contract, and get the better QB.
Advantage: Push
The short term
The short term advantages are a little hard to judge considering the very different game plans the Lions and Rams have heading into 2021.
If we’re speaking in terms of just straight success on the football field in 2021 then the Rams undoubtedly have this category by leaps and bounds. Again they get the better QB inserted into a much better overall team led by a more established head coach who is arguably the best play-caller in the League.
The only potential drawback for LA is problems they could have with depth should they run into any injuries given their anticipated tight cap restrictions heading into the season.
For the Lions, though they’re essentially playing with house money so to speak being in a rebuild. Any success they have on the football field with Goff under center will be chalked up as a bonus while again being provided multiple adequate options in terms of how they want to build their future team. Depending on how Goff performs that may include him and it may not, but the bottom line with it all though is the Lions know they’re going to suck in 2021 when it comes to wins and losses but it doesn’t even matter.
Advantage: Rams
The long term
The Rams are certainly rolling the dice on success and have basically a two-year window to win a Super Bowl. Beyond that LA could find themselves face-to-face with some pretty bleak rebuilding years as they now won’t pick in the first-round until at least 2024. Their offensive line, although good now is aging and there’s no indication that Stafford is going to be the Rams’ long-term quarterback considering he’s getting ready to turn 33 and probably won’t be in the Rams’ future plans once his contract is up. That is unless the Rams are able to extend their success by being able to hit on mid-round picks and Stafford is able to remain effective on the field and healthy enough to warrant another two or three-year deal.
For the Lions, they’ve set themselves up pretty well for potential long-term success. They now have five first-round picks over the course of the next three drafts. They have options in terms of what they can do at quarterback with Goff in tow. And for the first time in a long time, they seem to have an actual game plan in place that’s not simply trying to replicate another team’s success like they tried to do with the Patriots.
Advantage: Lions
The bottom line
Again it’s hard to judge a winner and loser here considering this was one of those rare trades that make so much sense for each team involved.
However, since we’re looking to find a winner in all of this we’ll go ahead and tilt this in favor of the Lions.
Yes, the Rams have positioned themselves to win a Super Bowl in 2021, and with Stafford have one of the most potent offenses in the entire League.
To reiterate though, what concerns me with the Rams is potential depth issues with their cap situation and how this can all fall apart with an injury to their 33-year-old QB who has been a little banged up the past couple of seasons.
The Lions meanwhile, get a haul in picks, a QB who could certainly use a change of scenery, is a viable option to start now, could benefit from working with Anthony Lynn who had success with Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert, and won’t handcuff the team in potentially having to reach for a QB in the 2021 draft.
Winner: Lions