The Lions go into this offseason with plenty of needs while head coach Jim Schwartz once again got to coach the Senior Bowl getting a firsthand look at potential draft prospects. By getting this chance the Lions need to take advantage by basing this draft on needs and abandon the best available strategy. The best available strategy can work if you do it on identified needs.
I’ll make this example…
Detroit can’t take a corner back (i.e. Dee Milliner from Alabama) after drafting 3 players last year at the position and all while having a greater need at defensive end, linebacker, safety and offensive line. The Lions arguably have the players on their team that will start at corner with Chris Houston hopefully being a top priority to re-sign during the offseason.
Now I’m not saying the Lions can’t use Milliner at corner, they definitely could. What I’m saying is Milliner is a stretch for Detroit. He is a good corner with good size, but a rookie corner on team that struggles to make opposing QB’s move their feet is not going to fare well. I wouldn’t hate the Milliner pick at 5, I just think Detroit can do better.
I like Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner the most (my pick in the early mock draft) as the Lions face Avril leaving via Free Agency and Vanden Bosch being let go.
But Werner isn’t the only guy the Lions could take a look at.
Defensive end Damontre Moore out of Texas A&M is a young kid at 20 years old, but is NFL built and still growing. The flat-out potential is intriguing to say the least. One of these two defensive ends should be there for Detroit.
Jarvis Jones is another player the Lions could use. Jones is a big linebacker that some believe could play defensive end if he added weight or could stay at OLB and be a menace. I don’t discount Jones’ nose for the football, it’s his injury history and his play against elite teams that’s concerning. Jones is a player that has feasted on lesser talented teams and I don’t think Detroit can afford to take a risk this early. At No. 5 this pick needs to fill a need on day one.
Moving along another player I wouldn’t be opposed to ending up with is Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel.
Play this scenario out, Joeckel at right tackle, Reiff at right guard (assuming Backus comes back, which the Lions seem more than open to) Joeckel would eventually move to LT. This provides protection for a pass happy offense, your star QB and getting push on an offensive line during a 3rd and 1 or 3rd and inches.
Bottom line is Detroit needs an identity, they need to have a strength, and the defensive line is something that they’ve already started building upon. You do not build a defense starting at corner, you build in the trenches much like on the offensive side of the ball.
So let’s recap, the Lions’ first round targets could be:
- Bjoern Werner, defensive end out of Florida State
- Damontre Moore, defensive end out of Texas A&M
- Luke Joeckel, offensive tackle out of Texas A&M
- Jarvis Jones, outside linebacker out of Georgia
- Dee Milliner, corner back out of Alabama.
Trading down is always an option Lions fans want to happen but it is more of a dream than a reality as it’s very hard to do. Getting value for the pick is always a problem and this is why trading down rarely happens. Just in case it was to happen though Alex Okafor, defensive end out of Texas, Ezekiel Ansah, defensive end out of BYU and Kenny Vaccaro, safety out of Texas are players I’d be happy with. All three players have tremendous upside but need work. If trading back landed an extra 2nd round and/or 3rd round pick, I would be all for it. Ideally an overall influx of young cheap talent is what Detroit needs but it’s a pipe dream more than anything.
For the middle 2nd and 3rd rounds things tend to get tricky
Most analyst believe the first 5 to 10 picks in the 2nd round are as good as a late 1st round selection. There is always talent that slips and teams are poised to make a great steal.
So who could the Lions target in these rounds?
There is a chance running back Giovani Bernard out of North Carolina is there for the picking. I don’t support this pick but he will be on Detroit’s draft board whether we or I like it or not. Bernard is the only RB worth a 1st rd pick but still could remain available for the Lions. Plus there’s a missing element to the Lions’ offense which is a speed back that has big play ability and can field kick offs and punts.
Again though I would rather wait until later in the draft to address the potential need at running back.
But to get back on point with the 2nd and 3rd round pick, the 2nd round pick in particular is a pick Detroit has received little help with in recent memory (Thanks Titus Young). Now I would love to get a linebacker here but the problem is Kevin Minter out of LSU isn’t a guy I’d pick here and Manti Te’o has made himself basically undraftable for the Lions.
So, onward to who Detroit could actually take:
- Barrett Jones, center/guard out of Alabama
- Jonathan Banks, corner back out of Mississippi State
- Alec Ogletree, linebacker out of Georgia
- Eric Reid, free safety out of LSU
- Matt Elam, strong safety out of Florida
- Magnus Hunt, defensive end out of Southern Methodist
This draft is so heavy with defensive line talent that it is possible the Lions reinvent themselves on the line at end to maximize having Suh and Fairley. But in the 2nd round if Ogletree is there, he has to be taken. Realistically though I don’t think he makes it out of the 1st round so with that said Jones at guard and Reid or Elam at either safety spot seems more likely.
The 3rd round brings me to favor a collection of players including Phillip Thomas (safety, Fresno State), Khaseem Greene (OLB Rutgers), Bacarri Rambo (safety, Georgia) and Larry Warford (guard, Kentucky). Here is where the Lions need to make their money in this year’s draft. This pick also has the chance to have an impact right off the bat and be a steal. I would prefer to go safety but if safety is already addressed Khaseem Greene or Larry Warford could be steals. Again though there is so much defensive line and offensive tackle depth in this year’s draft certain positions are going to get pushed down. Greene is rated as high as the third best OLB and as low as the fifth best. In the 3rd round Greene is a little bigger than most of the others around him in position grade outs, 6’1 is an ok height, he goes about 240 lb and has 4.6 speed in the 40 yard dash. He is someone who would walk in and make Lions fans see what they have been missing with DeAndre Levy’s play making ability. But if the pick was Larry Warford at guard, it certainly would be a pleasant sight. Warford is a load at 6’3 and 333lbs. He probably needs to lose a little weight but his ability to knock defenders off the ball is what we’re looking at here. And practicing everyday against Suh and Fairley will probably see him shed the extra lbs.
Bacarri Rambo and Phillip Thomas both have the size I would like at full safety and either or would be fine in the third round. In fact, I would rather end up with Thomas or Rambo than Reid or Elam in the 2nd. Now I don’t want to take away from Elam’s talent but at 5’10 he’s been falling in recent rankings and it would seem like Rambo or Thomas would be the safer pick.
As of right now the Lions don’t have a 4th round pick and it’s too bad. That pick cost a chance to move up into the late 2nd. Now we’re stuck with Mike Thomas.
So just to recap one thru three, this is what I like:
- Bjoern Werner, DE
- Alec Ogletree, OLB
- Phillip Thomas, S
Rounds 5 thru 7 are always a stretch. Teams that can find useful special team players in these rounds usually are the teams that are consistent winners in the NFL.
Here are guys that the Lions could be looking at in these later rounds:
- William Gholston, defensive end out of Michigan State
- Jonathan Cyprien, safety out of FIU
- Mike Gisllislee, running back out of Florida
- Chris Harper, wide receiver out of Kansas State
- Zeke Motta, free safety out of Notre Dame
- Ace Sanders, wide receiver out of South Carolina
- Tyrann Mathieu, safety out of LSU (Note: Mathieu was kicked off LSU before the season because of off the field problems. He ended up missing the entire year)
- Vince Williams, inside linebacker out of FSU
- Dustin Hopkins, kicker out of FSU
- Dion Sims, tight end out of Michigan State
It’s very hard to grade late round picks. One wrong step at the combine or a fast 40 can see a player move up two rounds or drop two rounds. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit take a kicker or punter here in the 7th. Jason Hanson is rumored to retire and Schwartz isn’t Nick Harris’ biggest fan.
I would also love to see the Lions walk away with Gholston at defensive end and Ace Sanders at wide receiver in the 5th and 6th rounds. The Honey Badger is a guy that just had a knack for plays and would be drafted for depth in my draft. He wouldn’t be expected to be a starter at safety (right off the bat at least) but returning kicks and a gunner on special teams is what I envision.
