Back in January of 2016, I wrote a piece entitled Alan Trammel doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. I’ve slightly softened on this position, but I overall still haven’t been convinced to change my mind. However, the enshrinement of Jack Morris this weekend is an absolute joke. I don’t know how else to put it.
I’ve heard all the arguments. Best pitcher of the 80’s. Winningest pitcher in the 80’s. Yada, yada, yada. They’re all bullshit. They are all emotional arguments and they don’t hold up to the scrutiny of hard data.
Data is what allows us to compare players through out the ages evenly. It allows voters who didn’t see previous entries play in person the ability to compare them to the current crop.
I’m going to throw some names at you and then I’ll let you know after all what they have in common.
Brad Radke, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, Johan Santana, Kevin Appier, and Tim Hudson.
Know what they all have in common? They have better numbers than Jack Morris and will never be in consideration for the Hall of Fame. Just consider how ‘meh that most of those guys were at the peak of their careers. Moyer and Santana fell off the ballot in their first attempt this past year.
There are other guys with much better numbers (almost double the career WAR of Morris) that aren’t in yet either. By Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Jack Morris, is the 149th best pitcher to ever play. (WAR isn’t a perfect metric, but is the best way to measure over the generations the value of a player). There are now 79 pitchers (66 Starters) in the Hall of Fame, meaning there are 86 guys more deserving that are not enshrined.
Some of these guys are still playing, some of them are not yet eligible because they are too recently retired, and even others played back in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. Believe it or not, I’m going to list most of them right here.
Still Active/Not Yet Eligible with a higher WAR than Jack Morris (43.9 WAR):
- #45 Zack Greinke (64.9 WAR)
- #46 Roy Halladay (64.3 WAR)
- #50 Clayton Kershaw (63.2 WAR)
- #55 Justin Verlander (61.7 WAR)
- #56 CC Sabathia (61.6 WAR)
- #64 Andy Pettitte (60.3 WAR)
- #67 Mark Buehrle (59.3 WAR)
- #74 Tim Hudson (58.2 WAR)
- #91 Cole Hamels (53.4 WAR)
- #101 Max Scherzer (51.4 WAR)
- #102 Felix Hernandez (51.3 WAR)
- #112 Roy Ozwalt (50.1 WAR)
- #132 Bartolo Colon (46.6 WAR)
Also closing in on Morris with plenty of time left in their careers:
- #158 John Lester (42.8 WAR)
- #159 Chris Sale (42.6 WAR)
Eligible/Eligibility Expired in the Top 75:
- #3 Roger Clemens (139.6 WAR) – No longer eligible via the traditional ballot.
- #23 Mike Mussina (83.0 WAR) – Still eligible
- #26 Curt Schilling (79.5 WAR) – Still eligible
- #27 Jim McCormick (76.2 WAR) – Retired in 1887.
- #32 Rick Reushel (69.7 WAR) – Only 2 votes in his only appearance on the ballot in 1997.
- #38 Kevin Brown (68.0 WAR) – Only 12 votes in his only appearance on the ballot in 2011.
- #41 Luis Tiant (66.5 WAR) – Failed to reach enshrinement after 15 ballots in 2002.
- #43 Tony Mullane (65.7 WAR) – Retired in 1894.
- #53 David Cone (62.8 WAR) – Only 21 votes in his only appearance on the ballot in 2009.
- #54 Tommy John (62.0 WAR) – Failed to reach enshrinement after 15 ballots in 2009.
- #58 Charlie Buffinton (61.3 WAR) – Retired in 1892.
- #59 Wes Ferrell – Retired in 1941.
- #61 Tommy Bond – Retired in 1884.
- #68 Brett Saberhagen – Only 7 votes in his only appearance on the ballot in 2007.
- #69 Urban Shocker – Retired in 1928.
- #70 Eddie Cicotte – Retired in 1920.
- #71 Bob Caruthers – Retired in 1892.
- #75 Chuck Finley – Only 1 vote in his only appearance on the ballot in 2008.
It is hard to have a rational, logical based dialectic about Jack Morris’s career in the area where I live (Metro Detroit). There are too many people with too fond of memories of Jack Morris bringing them the last World Series Championship that this town has seen. By the numbers, he doesn’t even have the best candidate for the Hall of Fame of all starting pitchers that played for Detroit during that era. Mickey Lolich (48.3 WAR) and Frank Tanana (57.6 WAR).
Jack Morris just wasn’t good enough when you back up and take the 30,000 foot view of the situation.
The data provided here, here is where Jack Morris ranks among starting pitchers who are the Hall of Fame. Among 65 other pitchers, Morris ranks (all data from Baseball Reference):
- 60th in WAR
- 64th in WAR in peak 7 years
- 33rd in Wins
- 37th in Losses
- 66th (Last) in ERA
- 64th in ERA+
- 37th in Games
- 36th in Games Started
- 55th in Complete Games
- 55th in Shutouts
- 36th in Innings Pitched
- 35th in Hits
- 49th in Earned Runs
- 56th in Walks
- 23rd in Strikeouts
He is elite in literally none of the Hall of Fame categories among his new peers. Here’s a few highlights of how Morris just doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame.
His career ERA+ is 105. He’s literally only five percent more productive than the average pitcher. That’s hardly Hall of Fame worthy. He’s 149th in career WAR among all players.
He never won the Cy Young Award. He never finished better than 13th in the MVP race or higher than third for the Cy Young.
He didn’t reach any of the automatic milestones. (Multiple MVP’s, Multiple Cy Young’s, or 300 wins).
He was only an All Star in five of his 18 seasons. That puts him on par with the likes of Troy Tulowitski, Edgar Renteria, and Mike Sweeney. None of these guys are Hall of Fame worthy.
Yet here we are. Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer, even though he shouldn’t be.
