Michigan State University Quarterback Connor Cook will go in the first round whether you like it or not.
Connor Cook may not be deserving. Cook may not be talented enough to deserve the pick, but because of circumstance, he will be selected in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft.
When you look at the NFL teams that need a quarterback, whether because their current guy isn’t any good or their current guy is getting old, half the league needs to come away with a starting quality quarterback this off-season.
You think that half the league doesn’t need a quarterback, think again. If the season ended today, this would be the draft order with the teams that need a quarterback accompanied with the percent chance they select one in the first round.
- Tennessee Titans (3-10) – 0% chance: No quarterback needed. Marcus Mariota is the real deal.
- San Diego Chargers (3-10) – 30% chance: Phillip Rivers is getting old and they can get out of his contract next year if they want to.
- Cleveland Browns (3-10) – 75% chance: Johnny Manziel is a turd. They might be able to fleece the Cowboys for some draft picks for Manziel because Jerry Jones has an irrational man crush on Johnny Football.
- Baltimore Ravens (4-9) – 0% chance: Joe Flacco is still a functional NFL starting quarterback and they owe him too much money to move on from him now.
- San Francisco 49ers (4-9) – 100% chance: Colin Kaepernick will be cut or traded quickly after the season ends and back-up Blaine Gabbert isn’t any good either. These guys need a quarterback and will take one in the draft.
- Dallas Cowboys (4-9) – 40% chance: Tony Romo is older than dirt and can’t stay healthy anymore. But this is a Jerry Jones run team and he holds on to old has-been players way to long and Tony Romo’s replacement needs to be found now.
- Detroit Lions (4-9) – 5% chance: Detroit Lions fans think they need a new quarterback, but the organization and the league doesn’t think Matthew Stafford is worthy of replacement. The Lions owe Stafford too much money to be moved on from.
- Miami Dolphins (5-8) – 0% chance: Ryan Tannehill’s progression is continuing and they owe him too much money to move on from him, especially considering his age.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) – 0% chance: Unless Blake Bortles gets hit by a bus between now and draft day, the Jacksonville Jaguars have found their man.
- Chicago Bears (5-8) – 50% chance: Jay Cutler will never win a super bowl. You can tell everyone I said that. The Bears should move on from him, but they won’t.
- St. Louis Rams (5-8) – 95% chance: While Nick Foles is under contract for next season, the Rams have benched him for Case Keenum. Case freakin’ Keenum. The Rams will need to try to find their franchise quarterback this off-season.
- New Orleans Saints (5-8) – 30% chance: Drew Brees is getting very old. However, the Saints will likely fire their coach and general manager in the off-season, which will likely mean they will look to find a new quarterback as well.
- New York Giants (6-7) – 10% chance: Eli Manning is fine, but isn’t un-replaceable. This quarterback class isn’t deep enough for them to use a first round pick on a quarterback.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) – 0% chance.:Famous Jameis isn’t going anywhere. He’s struggled with turnovers, but with everything else is ahead of schedule.
- Atlanta Falcons (6-7) – 0% chance: Matt Ryan isn’t very good in my opinion, but the Atlanta Falcons need a lot more than a quarterback to contend for a super bowl title.
- Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) – 100% chance: The Eagles will likely have to trade up to get their guy, because the two clowns they have now are insults to football.
- Oakland Raiders (6-7) – 0% chance: Derek Carr is progressing towards being one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come.
- Buffalo Bills (6-7) – 75% chance: The Buffalo Bills would be very silly to not find a better solution at quarterback than Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod Taylor is a very nice back-up quarterback or starter on a bad team. He’s not the guy that can take you to the mountain top.
- Houston Texans (6-7) – 90% chance: Brian Hoyer is not good and can’t stay healthy. They need to find their franchise quarterback so they can’t stop wasting a once in a generation talent in J.J. Watt.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) – 0% chance: The Steelers have their guy in Big Ben. Landry Jones has looked like a more than adequate backup in relief this year.
- Washington Redskins (6-7) – 60% chance: The Redskins have to make a decision on Kirk Cousins. He’s the NFL’s most accurate passer so far in 2016, but still turns the ball over a ton. He can walk at the end of the year so if they decide he isn’t the guy or Cousins refuses their offer, the Redskins will need a quarterback.
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7) – 0% chance: Andrew Luck, that’s why.
- New York Jets (8-5) – 100% chance: Geno Smith is a turd and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a old. Neither guy makes any money so it will be no reason to not move on to an impact quarterback.
- Minnesota Vikings (8-5) – 0% chance: Teddy Bridgewater is growing in front of our eyes. Although he doesn’t have gaudy passing numbers, it’s because he doesn’t need to throw much.
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) – 75% chance: Alex Smith isn’t special. There’s a reason I call him captain check-down. The Chiefs can certainly do better if one of the top prospects falls into their lap.
- Seattle Seahawks (8-5) – 0% chance: They’ve got Russel Wilson who’s fresh off an extension. He’s been good this year and is healthy, so they have no reason to move on.
- Green Bay Packers (9-4) – 0% chance: They have A-A Ron Rod Gers. They don’t need a quarterback.
- Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) – 0% chance: Unless the Red Rifle’s thumb injury is worse than they are leading on, they don’t need a quarterback.
- Denver Broncos (10-3) – 50% chance: Peyton Manning could be a financial casualty and Brock Osweiler can walk at the end of the season. If they lose out on both these guys, they’re going to need a quarterback.
- Arizona Cardinals (11-2) – 25% chance: Is this the year that the Arizona Cardinals draft the heir apparent to Carson Palmer. Palmer is having the best year of his career, but is due for a downward progression sooner or later.
- New England Patriots (11-2) – No Pick – Deflategate
- Carolina Panthers (13-0) – Cam Newton is not going anywhere. They just need to get him some receivers.
By that count 12 NFL teams have more than a 40 percent chance of taking a quarterback in the first round. That’s a ton of teams that are quarterback deficient. With Connor Cook, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch being the only quarterbacks in this draft are being graded as first rounders, somebody will take Connor Cook in the first round even if there are more questions than answers about his stock.
With 12 NFL teams needing quarterbacks, don’t be surprised if Cardale Jones from Ohio State or Christian Hackenberg from Penn State aren’t selected in the first round as well. In the last few years we’ve seen questionable selections of Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, Tim Tebow, and Blaine Gabbert in the first round, all of which been total busts.
Connor Cook may not end up being a very good pro, but it is for certain that he will go in the first round.
