First off, let me get it out of the way. Suh is a great talent, he is one of the top 3 defensive tackles in the NFL and arguably one of the top 10 defensive players in the league. Packers’ G TJ Lang in a recent sit in on 97.1 The Ticket’s Valenti and Foster show even said “in my mind he is the best defensive tackle in the league”.
Now that’s out of the way and you see this isn’t a hate piece. It’s about brass tax.
- Exhibit A: 7-year, $210 million dollar deal
- Exhibit B: 6-year, $100 million dollar deal
This should be pretty easy for a Detroit fan to figure out, one deal is the deal Max Scherzer left the Tigers for and the other deal is the rumored deal it will take to keep Ndamukong Suh. Right now, I will remind you that I said no to Scherzer’s deal as well, and he was more important to the Tigers than Suh to the Lions.
Here’s why:
The NFL salary cap is $133 million. Rumored to be going up to $143 million.
The Tigers are going to push the luxury tax around $175 million.
Stay with me here, the Lions can do two things. Pay Suh more money than J.J. Watt or use the franchise tag on him, which is a really bad idea because it will cost the Lions almost a $27 million dollar cap hit.
Player A is responsible for 15% of a teams putouts over a teams season. 4,374 outs in a season, Player A is going to give you 660 of them
Player B Is responsible for 7 to 8% of impact plays on a team’s season. Roughly 1000 snaps on defense and Player B had 85 impact plays. 42 tackles, 7 Asst, 8 Sacks, 10 hurries, 18 QB hits.
Player A is going to cost you 17% of a teams salary or roughly 8.5% for 7 years plus another 7 years after the contract is over.
Player B Is going to cost you 18% (the percent can be higher if the cap doesn’t go up to $143 million) of a $143 million dollar salary cap if you franchise him or 11% if you sign him to a rumored 6-year, $100 million dollar deal. Granted there are other factors like a back loaded contract, which only makes for a worse situation. (Lions owe Suh $6 million regardless)
See my point? It comes down to impact. You are getting a direct impact out of Suh on 8% of the defensive snaps. Direct impact being the keyword. With Scherzer you are seeing an impact of 15% on the season (almost double Suh) every time he’s on the mound. To further my point, at no time is Suh ever going to impact the team as much as his salary. Scherzer was closer to being an even number in terms of impact percentage to salary percentage and why I’m strongly against re-signing Suh. I use Scherzer to make it more Detroit relatable. With Scherzer I didn’t want to get caught holding the tab in decline.
To answer the rebuttal of “Well Suh makes guys around him better”, I would tell you, doesn’t Scherzer as well? Him pitching a certain way like outside to get a weak fly to RF or striking a guy out so Castellanos doesn’t have to field it. That’s makes guys around you better too.
So I’m not picking on Suh. I’ll give you Gerald McCoy’s numbers. He was responsible for a 5% to 6% impact and his salary and 9% of his team’s salary cap. Also consider he missed 4 games and still spent more time rushing the passer than Suh. The next closest DT is Geno Atkins who eats up 7% of his teams salary and didn’t have nearly as strong of a season as McCoy or Suh and hasn’t been the player he was in 2012. So neither one of these guys are pulling the weight of their deals.
