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Why the Lions Should Draft an Offensive Lineman With the Fifth Pick

Dorf

NCAA Football: Texas vs OklahomaThe Detroit Lions have had only 2 men start at left tackle since 2001. One of them is a guy that everyone in Detroit has loved to hate for the last 13 years and his name was Jeff Backus, a Michigan grad no less. One of the three most polarizing figures in Detroit sports, the Lions Left Tackle, the Red Wings Goalie, and the Tigers Closer, Jeff Backus racked up lots of hate over the years. He decided to retire a few weeks ago, essentially forcing the Lions to address the Offensive Tackle position early in the draft.

Many Detroit fans won’t realize how lucky they have been over the last couple of seasons to have Gosder Cherilus and Jeff Backus on either side of the line because they both have played very well. Best wishes to Mr. Backus in retirement and good luck to Gosder in Indianapolis, glad you got paid and the Lions didn’t make the mistake of paying you eight million per season. They both have moved on, and so therefore the Lions must do the same.

The Lions must take a tackle in the first round, or you risk Mathew Stafford becoming as battered and beaten as Jay Cutler. You see how many shots Cutler takes and what that has done to him mentally and physically. Without drafting a ready to play tackle, you are forced to play last years 1st round pick Riley Rieff slightly out of position at Left Tackle, who is just barely athletic enough to handle it with adequate skill, but has the skills to be a great Right Tackle, and then start either Corey Hilliard or Jason Fox at right tackle. Hilliard didn’t even dress the entire last season, even though he was healthy, and Fox has been on injured reserve two out of the last three seasons before they even began. Trotting out Hilliard or Fox at the RT spot equals another Matt Stafford shoulder injury and two to four starts in 2013 by backup QB Shawn Hill. Neither of those guys have proven to be NFL caliber talent. This proposition is one I’m sure one Stafford loses sleep over.

This years draft has three top 10 worthy tackles, two guards that also could go in the top 15, and 2 other offensive lineman that should get their name called on the first night of the draft. The Lions should get right to work and draft one of those fellas at number 5 and be done with the offensive tackle discussion for the next 5-10 years. You would then have the two bookends to protect Matt Stafford till his hair turns grey. Look at the Tennessee Titans as an example. After selecting Offensive Tackles Michael Roos and Dave Stewart in 2004, they haven’t had to worry about them since. Michael Roos is a really good left tackle, (who you don’t hear much about because he plays in Tennessee) and Dave Stewart is darn good too. They took care of the issue in 2004 and both guys are still pillars on that offense. (Now if they could find a QB…)

Could the Lions win 10 games this season without selecting a tackle; probably. Would drafting a DB or DE help; absolutely. However, I would argue that drafting an offensive tackle will have a bigger impact in the long run.

  1. Will help keep your franchise QB who will cost 20.8 Millions dollars this season upright so he can throw to your 120 million dollar wide receiver. Without protection you render all that money effectively useless. 
  2. If your team improves by 2-6 wins this season, they no longer will be in a position to draft a franchise Left Tackle. These guys don’t grow on trees.
  3. The defensive ends who are deemed top 10 worthy are all projects, and we all know how the Lions do with project players. (Hint: Not Good)
  4. The one defensive back who is deemed top 10 worthy is really inflated. He played at the big name college and is more a ESPN lovechild than a super NFL prospect. The last guy that they described as solid yet unspectacular, similar how they describe Dee Millner, was LB Aaron Curry, and hes out of Football less than three years after he was drafted.
  5. This draft is deep at defensive end and defensive back. This is an overall deep offensive line class, but the only good LT prospects will be gone by pick 11. You can fill those needs in round 2, unless the decide to draft another offensive skill position. (I say with a groan.)

Having done a little research into the last ten drafts, I found some very interesting things.

Total Players Drafted

All

QB

RB

TE

WR

OT

DL

OLB

LB

DB
100

18

8

2

15

13

18

3

7

16

Bust Percentage by Position

All

QB

RB

TE

WR

OT

DL

OLB

LB

DB

34%

39%

13%

0%

47%

31%

44%

0%

57%

19%

Hit Percentage

All

QB

RB

TE

WR

OT

DL

OLB

LB

DB

66%

61%

88%

100%

53%

69%

56%

100%

43%

81%

If fans would have their way, the Lions would draft a defensive back, the third most safe pick statistically behind tight end and running back, who have 10 been only 10 percent of the picks combine for the last 10 drafts. Out of the position groups that make up the most highly drafted groups (Defensive Back, Defensive Line, Wide Receiver, and Quarterback) Offensive tackle has the second highest hit rate, at 69 percent. That’s about the most sure thing you can bet on when drafting.

This class has three excellent Left Tackle Prospects. Here is a small breakdown of each.

The Lions would be set with any of the three, although it is almost a sure thing that Joeckel will be gone before the Lions are on the clock and a 50/50 split that Fisher will be gone too. Johnson is very good, but is he 5th pick worthy. If the Lions stick to the party line of “best player available”, is Johnson it, or is he just a very good player that should be in the top 12 picks.

I really hope that Fisher is available to the Lions with the 5th pick, although three of the four teams ahead of them need Left tackles, so it is very likely gone, and isn’t someone I would root for the Lions to trade up for, especially because Johnson will still be on the board. Bottom line, draft a left tackle now, and then you are done with the “lets find a franchise left tackle” game for the next decade.

-Dorf

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