After an extremely depressing and heartbreaking 2-2 draw against Portugal Sunday the United States still finds themselves in excellent shape in their attempt to advance to the knockout round. Yes a win against Portugal would’ve sealed the deal and the United States could have taken things a bit easier Thursday against Germany but as it still stands right now the odds are on the US’s side when it comes to making another appearance in the Round of 16.
First the United States’ would automatically advance to the next round with a win over Germany which seems simple enough. In fact a win would mean the United States wins the Group of Death (or Group G) and would face the second place team out of Group H that currently belongs to Algeria.
Second, if the U.S. were to draw against Germany the United States would find themselves finishing second in Group G and playing the winner of Group H which is currently Belgium.
However, if the United States were to lose to Germany hope is not lost for the USMNT, things just get a bit more confusing.
With that said a loss to Germany and the United States would still advance to the Round of 16 if (via NBC Sports):
1. Ghana and Portugal draw; or
2. Ghana beats Portugal (a) by only one goal, and (b) the U.S. loses by only one goal, and (c) Ghana doesn’t outscore the U.S. by two or more goals on the day; or
3. Portugal beats Ghana and fails to make up the five-goal gap in difference (see more, below).
Essentially the United States can thank Germany for that 4-0 blowout of Portugal giving the USMNT the first tie breaker. For things to work against the United States and the Round of 16 Portugal would either have to blow out Ghana or the US would have to get blown out by Germany.
Either way here’s every scenario via NBC Sports:
- If Germany beats the U.S. by five or more, Portugal only needs to beat Ghana to advance.
- If Germany wins by four, Portugal advances if they beat Ghana at least two. If they win by one, Portugal can still advance if they end up with more total goals than the U.S. The Americans currently have four. Portugal has two. If the teams end up with the same number of goals, they’ll draw lots, leaving Group G’s second knockout round spot up to chance.
- If Germany wins by three, Portugal advances if they win by three or more. Win by two: Total goals, then lots. Win by only one? They’re out.
- If Germany wins by two, Portugal advanced if they win by four of more. Win by three: Goals and lots. Two or less: They’re done.
- If Germany wins by one, Portugal advances with a five-goal win. Four? Goals, lots. Three of fewer? Adeus.
So as you can see things once again still look good for the United States. Not to mention either opponent whether it’s Belgium or Algeria are pretty formidable and would pose a big test no mater who the U.S. faces in the Round of 16 (if they make it of course).