Angels GM Jerry Dipoto has several options to consider before deciding whether or not to pursue another starting pitcher this offseason. The top two Free Agents that remain available are Max Scherzer and James Shields. Both of these offseason prizes carry some risk and will demand a good chunk of money. Should Dipoto pursue Scherzer or Shields? Or should Dipoto avoid signing a top-tier free agent and elect to go with a backend rotation starter on a shorter deal?
Remember, Tyler Skaggs underwent Tommy John surgery in August and the likelihood of him missing the entire 2015 season is high. Skaggs could make a return to the Angels rotation at the end of the 2015 season, although it’s not worth risking Tyler’s long term health considering he is only 23 years old. Garrett Richards will also not be available to start the 2015 season, as he is still recovering from a torn patellar tendon he suffered in August. Richards will likely return in May and will impact the club immediately when healthy. Last year Richards solidified himself as an elite starter in the American League as he held a 13-4 record with a 2.61 ERA before injuring his left knee.
Angels Probable Opening Day Rotation:
Jered Weaver
CJ Wilson
Matt Shoemaker
Hector Santiago
Andrew Heaney
CJ Wilson struggled mightily last season but Scioscia may elect to insert him between Weaver and Shoemaker to split up the only two right-handers in the rotation. The rotation has plenty of questions that remain to be answered. Will CJ Wilson bounce back? Is Andrew Heaney big league ready? Can Shoemaker perform close to his eye-popping 16-4, 3.04 ERA season? These are legitimate concerns that may force Dipoto to add one more starting pitcher to the rotation this offseason. Regardless, Garrett Richards returning about 4-6 weeks into the season will boost this rotation and likely send Hector Santiago to the bullpen.
Free Agents Available:
Max Scherzer is the elite pitching prize this offseason. He has established himself as a legitimate CY Young candidate as he has tallied a phenomenal 39-8 record the last two seasons. However, Jon Lester signing with the Cubs for 6 years/$155M likely means Scherzer will be signed for upwards of $175 million. Max Scherzer is also represented by Scott Boras who has caused some problems for Arte Moreno in the past.
Pursue or Pass? The price tag will be too high and the Angels should pass.
James Shields is the second best option remaining this offseason and he would immediately insert himself amongst the top of the rotation. Last season Shields posted a 13-8 record with a 3.21 ERA while pitching for Kansas City. “Big Game James” has posted a 114-90 record with a 3.72 ERA in his nine seasons. The concern with Shields is his age as he turns 33 this week and any contract longer than 4 years will offer some serious risk.
Pursue or Pass? If signing Shields can get done for something in the neighborhood of 4 years/$64M, then the Angels should pursue. This would likely send Hector Santiago to the bullpen at the start of the season rather than in May when Garrett Richards returns.
Angels Probable Opening Day Rotation (with James Shields):
Jered Weaver
James Shields
CJ Wilson
Matt Shoemaker
Andrew Heaney
Edinson Volquez had a phenomenal 2014 campaign and remains under the radar in the free agent market. Volquez logged nearly 200 innings for the Pirates while posting a 13-7 record and a 3.02 ERA. Volquez has always had talent but he is wildly unpredictable. Signing Edinson Volquez to anything more than a two-year deal is risky.
Pursue or Pass? The Angels should pass on Volquez even though he had a tremendous season last year and will be rather inexpensive. Volquez has had seasons where he posts a 17-6 record with a 3.21 ERA, and then follows it up with seasons where he finishes 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA. The lack of consistency from Volquez is why he has played for five different teams since 2007 and ultimately why the Angels need to stay away from this possible signing.
Jake Peavy finished last season 7-13 with a respectable 3.73 ERA. However, Jake struggled mightily in the American League and should be a player who remains in the National League for the rest of his career. Peavy who received over $16 million in 2014 will see a significant decrease in earnings now that he is a free agent. The veteran starter will most likely fetch a two-year contract with an NL team in the neighborhood of $16 million.
Pursue or Pass? The Angels should pass on Peavy who remains an NL-only pitcher. He is a competitive athlete, but he proved once again that he can’t perform in the American League. Last season with Boston he went 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA before being traded to San Francisco where he went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA. Jake can help a team looking to bolster the backend of a rotation but he would have to be willing to sign for significantly less money.
Kris Medlen is a name some have forgotten about since he missed last season with Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched since 2013. Medlen in 2013 posted a 15-12 record with a 3.11 ERA and pitched nearly 200 innings. In his five seasons with the Braves Medlen has posted a 34-20 record with a 2.95 ERA. Despite the Tommy John surgery prior to the 2014 season Medlen should be ready to return in June of 2015. There is some obvious risk with this signing, but there is potentially a much larger reward.
Pursue or Pass? The Angels should cautiously pursue Kris Medlen. The Tommy John surgery is always something to have concern about but we are talking about a relatively young pitcher (29 years old) who won’t turn 30 until October. Medlen has a career ERA under 3.00 which will increase in the American League, but not enough to scare any American League clubs. Since Medlen had Tommy John surgery and will not be returning until June, he can be signed for a very low-cost and can significantly reward a club when he returns. Prior to his surgery, Medlen was a player who would have netted approximately $15 million a season. Now that he had surgery, he could still produce like a $15 million pitcher but come at a discount of about $6 million a season. The Angels should offer Kris Medlen a 2-year deal with a club option for a third year. If it doesn’t work out, the signing won’t have much impact for the Angels. If it does workout, the Angels could ink the biggest steal in the 2015 free agent market.
