Perhaps the best sign that an organization is truly on the right track are those high value contracts. Now I’m not talking about bloated contracts that often times hindered bad teams in the past (like the Lions) from doing anything productive going forward. With that in mind it’s no secret that the NFL’s old model for rookie salaries without a doubt hindered a team’s chances of getting out of their own dark age, especially if a team was constantly obtaining top ten picks in the NFL Draft. Not to make an excuse for shitty general managing (which again the Lions have had their fair share of in the past) but until the NFL was able to cap off rookie salaries, teams like the Lions, Browns, Cardinals and so on were essentially stuck in NFL contractural purgatory (or hell in some cases).
As far as those high value contracts I’m talking about the contracts that may not necessarily be high in money. I’m talking high-production and statistical data that make that player far more valuable than just their monetary value.
Which brings us to Lions running back Theo Riddick, a guy who Detroit has gotten a shit ton of return out of since drafting him in the sixth round out of Notre Dame back in 2013. But in terms of that return and his deal heading into 2018 where does Riddick rank in terms of on-field value and his contract?
The best according to PFF:
A playmaker in the receiving game, Riddick was at his best in 2015, when his 2.2 yards per route run average was the most among all running backs with at least 50 targets in the passing game. Over the course of his five-year career, Riddick has seen an NFL passer rating of 108.2 on targeted throws, and he has produced a PFF receiver grade of at least 80.0 in three of the past four seasons. In a crowded backfield in Detroit, where rookie Kerryon Johnson is routinely tipped to see the most work, don’t be surprised to see Riddick as the team’s primary threat out of the backfield once again in 2018.
PFF stated that this study was to determine which teams have the league’s best players under the lowest amount of guaranteed, annual money and which of those athletes had been standouts at their respective positions. This was essentially sought out by calculating a player’s WAR (yes it exists in Football as well) by filtering out players who are at least into their second contract in the League and are signed for 2018, 2019 and potentially beyond. Players would also need to have logged at least 1,000 snaps over the course of the last three seasons.
As far as the formula goes:
The formula developed was essentially that, and the results were very appealing. Are teams paying the premium for top-notch players at each position? Are there individuals who are currently outplaying their contract value?
All of that information granted us the ability to isolate a player’s three-year average WAR value over their guaranteed salary (both this season and remaining) to take a look at which players are signed to the best contracts at their positions, with respect to their peers. All contract data comes from overthecap.com.
So it seems like from here, perhaps one of the biggest questions for the Lions is whether or not they’re ultimately using Riddick enough? The backfield heading into the regular season is already crowded especially with rookie Kerryon Johnson expected to get plenty of touches in 2018 and LeGarrette Blount presumably managing those short yardage situations.
Obviously a crowded backfield with multiple capable options is a good problem to have, for any NFL team. But at least next season, Riddick may still be the Lions’ best backfield threat, even with the extra talent in tow.