In a report yesterday by Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, documents that have come to light during the collusion case of Colin Kaepernick show that NFL teams viewed Colin Kaepernick as a NFL starting quarterback. Florio acts like this was a huge revelation.
It isn’t.
Pete Carrol, the Head Coach of the Seattle Seahawks said this openly just under a year ago to the media.
“Colin’s been a fantastic football player, and he’s going to continue to be. At this time, we didn’t do anything with him, but we know where he is and who he is. We had a chance to understand him much moreso. He’s a starter in this league. I can’t imagine that … we have a starter, you know, but he’s a starter in this league and I can’t imagine that somebody won’t give him a chance to play.” (Quote Pulled from Fox Sports)
The Seahawks choose not to sign him because they viewed him as a NFL starter. They already had that role filled within their organization with Russell Wilson, a consensus top ten quarterback in the league entrenched as their starter.
I’m sure that Pete Carrol isn’t the only evaluator that viewed Colin Kaepernick as a starting quarterback in this league. I personally don’t, but I understand those who might.
My reasons that I don’t view Colin Kaepernick as an NFL Starting Quarterback stem from problems with downfield accuracy and the mental side of quarterbacking (progressions, reading defenses, etc). Sure, he could be a bridge Quarterback, carrying a franchise for a year or two while they try to find their next Quarterback in the draft and getting them acclimated to the league (see Keenum, Case and McCown, Josh).
Bridge quarterbacks stick around because they are inoffensive and just good enough to not have the league and to not embarrass the franchise. When they are signed, everyone inside and outside the organization knows why they are here. Just to captain the ship until the next guy is ready to take over. Nobody is happy about the situation, but it just is what it is.
Backup Quarterbacks fill an even different role within NFL organizations. Their primary role is the mental side of the game and weekly game preparation. They are secondary Quarterback coaches that will strap on a helmet and play if shit hits the fan. Their contribution comes in the meeting room and the on the sideline, not on the field.
There is a reason that inferior talents like Luke McCown, Dan Orlovsky, and Kellen Clemens are/were able to hold down jobs in the NFL for so long. Their contributions to the team on the mental side of things were valuable enough to keep them on the roster. Teams likely don’t view Colin Kaepernick as a valuable mental contributor, for whatever reason, meaning they don’t view him as a backup Quarterback. Occasionally teams will keep a young, developmental Quarterback on their roster instead or in addition to their “second QB coach” because the view them as a future high level player who just isn’t ready. Colin Kaepernick no longer qualifies for this status because of his age (30).
The idea that with the small roster sizes of the NFL allow franchises to carry one-for-one replacements for all their starters is ridiculous. Most teams don’t have backup plans for most positions that do the same things well as the guy they are replacing. Guys fill specific niche roles. Teams that needed a Starting Quarterback didn’t view him as better than what they had or they didn’t want him to stand in the way of the development of one of a younger with a higher ceiling.
How Teams Evaluate Starting Quarterbacks
In the NFL, there are six tiers of NFL starting Quarterbacks.
- The Elite: Guys who can win games by themselves. There are only a few guys in this category.
- Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson
- The Damn Good: Guys who are good enough to win a Super Bowl as long as the team has and elite side of the ball.
- Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, etc.
- The Pedestrian: Guys that you can win games with, but aren’t going to take you to the mountain top without a million things going your way. These guys will fall into the category of “Replaceable” in a year or two.
- Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, etc.
- The Developing: Younger players with the potential to reach “Elite” or “Damn Good”. Whether or not they reach this level is up to them. These players are most often on their first contract. Players who end their development cycle can move into any of the other categories, but they must have the potential to be upper tier.
- Marcus Mariota, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, etc.
- The Bridges: Quarterbacks who aren’t horrific but aren’t good either. They have jobs to transition teams to the next shot of getting an upper tier Quarterback. Teams that have these QB’s are actively searching for a Quarterback that has the potential to climb into the upper tiers.
- Josh McCown, Trevor Siemian, Tyrod Talyor, etc.
- The Replaceable: Players who that teams will be looking to replace because they have reached their maximum potential and they will never be good enough to reach the upper tiers. Teams who have this type of starting Quarterback are actively searching for a new Quarterback and will likely overspend on the free agent market on a Quarterback in the “Pedestrian” ranks or tank to take a “Developing” Quarterback at the top of the draft. The difference between the guys who have this ranking becoming backups or falling out of the league has two factors. Are they well liked and are they a mental ace.
- Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, etc.
Let’s face the reality of the situation. Colin Kaepernick is 30 years old, which even for a Quarterback is really getting old and he hasn’t seen NFL action for a season. He’s reached his max potential. Can anyone honestly assess him as being more than “Pedestrian” in the here and now? Teams that are good enough to win with a Colin Kaepernick already have their starting Quarterbacks and as I’ve discussed above, don’t view him as filling the role of a backup.
An honest assessment of Kaepernick’s on field talent drops him into the “Bridge” or “Replaceable” Category. Factor in that he’s been out of football for a year and comes with some side baggage (rightly, wrongly, or otherwise) means he doesn’t stand out enough from the other available options in these catagories to make a team pull the trigger.
Colin Kaepernick doesn’t have “potential” anymore. Most new draft picks enter the league as 20-23 year olds, meaning teams have the potential to get seven to ten additional years out of their investment compared to Colin Kaepernick. He never was a member of the “Elite” or “Damn Good” category of NFL starting Quarterbacks, peaking as “Developing” and ultimately settling into the “Pedestrian” category during the end of his tenure with the 49ers.
As I said, Pedestrian Quarterbacks aren’t long for the NFL. Teams aren’t actively looking to replace the, but are doing the homework making it happen in the next year or two. Guys don’t break back into the league if they were in this category when they left, especially without being a mental ace in the hole.
With this all being said. It isn’t a surprise that some NFL teams view Colin Kaepernick as a starting NFL Quarterback, but what they all likely have in common is that they don’t need a “Pedestrian” or below level quarterback. Those who do have a need at Quarterback aren’t a “Pedestrian” quarterback away from winning a Super Bowl (maybe with the lone exception of the Jaguars, who obviously think higher of Blake Bortles than the rest of the world), meaning they will turn to the lottery known as the NFL Draft to try and find their next upper tier QB.
After doing a deeper dive, instead of the popular surface level dive into the situation it is easy to see that Colin Kaepernick can be both an NFL starting quality Quarterback and not be on a team. These things are not mutually exclusive.