Brady Hoke and the Michigan Wolverines certainly delighted their fans this past season finishing 11-2 which included a win over hated rival Ohio State and a BCS bowl win over Virginia Tech.
Hoke in his first season with the team was able to get the right people in place (Greg Mattison) to turn around a historically bad defense, unite a divided fan base and get one of the nations best recruiting classes in place.
With all that in mind, including another year in the pro style for quarterback Denard Robinson you would think that Michigan is in line for a tremendous 2012 season.
2012 expectations is where we may have a problem though…
Going into next season Michigan is certainly going to be one of the more hyped teams given their 2011 successes. However when you look at those 2011 successes you may notice that they may not necessarily carry over to 2012.
When you look at this past season’s schedule, Michigan had 8 home games which included Notre Dame (W), Nebraska (W) and Ohio State (W). Their road games included Northwestern (W), Michigan State (L), Iowa (L) and Illinois (W).
Michigan fans might also note that 9 of their 11 games this season came against teams that went to bowl games and their non-conference wins came against teams that went a combined 29-22.
But let’s be honest with ourselves everyone, the teams they beat in their non-conference schedule were still cupcake wins (for the most part), despite the bowl appearances. They beat up on two mediocre MAC teams in Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan and beat an inconsistent Notre Dame team with a miracle 4th quarter. Michigan also took advantage of a San Diego State team that was in their first season under a new head coach (after Brady Hoke left) who later went on to lose to Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl.
Furthermore we cannot really measure the success of a team based opponent bowl appearances since a 6-6 record gets you bowl eligible. Not to mention the vast amount of bowl games that focus more so on money rather than how good a football team actually is.
In terms of individual play, quarterback Denard Robinson looked to be adapting to Brady Hoke’s pro set towards the end of the regular season before he was somewhat derailed by Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Running back Fitz Toussaint also had a nice emergence this season which took a ton of pressure off Robinson on the ground and through the air.
Michigan was also unusually successful in collecting fumbles this year with 19 total, second-most nationally. Michigan was also pretty good at preventing the big play (27th nationally in plays of 10 yards or more allowed). But they did allow opponents to get them in bunches too frequently (13 percent of opponent drives averaged 10 yards per play or more, 63rd nationally).
If you fast forward to 2012, there’s going to some hurdles and questions that Michigan is going to have to answer to.
First, will Denard Robinson continue to improve or regress in Hokes pro-style offense? Again it certainly looked like a number of teams were focused in on how to stop him.
Of course, Robinson’s success may depend on how good of a season Fitz Toussaint has in 2012 which is another area fans will have to keep an eye on.
Second, Michigan is losing three defensive starters to graduation including tackle Mike Martin. Again, you have to ask yourself what kind of effect will this have their ability to force and recover fumbles and limit the big play on defense?
Finally their schedule in 2012 is much more difficult than what it was in 2011. The Wolverines open up the year in Arlington, Texas against what will probably be a national championship contender in Alabama, host Air Force’s triple option a week later and travel to play Notre Dame at the end of September. They also play six total home games (one of which includes Michigan State) but go on the road to play the likes of Ohio State and Nebraska.
Fans though will be able to see the beginning of Brady Hoke’s top of the line recruiting class. However much like any recruiting class it’s going to take time for the freshmen to adapt to the college game, especially in the Big Ten.
Now before you go on and label me a Spartan slap or Michigan hater, the Spartans too will have their own regression in 2012 given their loses. However the hype surrounding Michigan is much more apparent than that of Michigan State.
There is also no doubt that Brady Hoke has this team going in the right direction. It seems like he has the right people in place and knows how to recruit in the Big Ten for long-term success. However an 11-2 record in 2011 may have fans wanting something equal to or better than in 2012 which by all means is going to be very difficult given the factors at hand.
Ref: ESPN, Football Outsiders, MGoBlue.com, counterkicks.com (image)
