When you look at the 2011 Detroit Tigers, you see what is almost two different teams wrapped into one. On one hand you have a team that consists of four of the top 25 position players (Cabrera, Avila, Boesch, Peralta) in the league in terms of wins by replacement (WAR). Furthermore in terms of WAR, the Tigers also have the third best pitcher in the MLB with Justin Verlander.
Yet the Tigers remain only a few games above .500 and sit in second place behind the Cleveland Indians, a team far less talented than that of Detroit.
So why is this the case? Why would a team with 4 of the top 25 position players and one of the best players in baseball be in the position they’re at?
You don’t have to look any further than the bottom end of the Tigers’ lineup.
Once you get past Victor Martinez, the disparity between the top of the lineup and the bottom of the lineup is remarkable. Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago all have a OBP that’s less than .600.
But it gets more interesting from here.
Dan Szymborski of ESPN.com took a look at every team going back to 1901 and picked the eight most frequent starters for every team (nine for DH-era American Leaguers). He then went with a simple measure of disparity and compared every lineup’s top-four and bottom-four hitters to see which lineups in history were the most polarized. To keep things simple, he used OPS.
Now if the 2011 season were to end today, out of 2,300 or so teams, this years Tigers squad would be the most polarizing team in modern MLB history. The top of 4 players for the Tigers’ OPS is currently at .925 while the bottom 4 sit at .603. That’s a .322 difference, out doing the 1929 Cubs which saw a .321 difference between their top 4 and bottom 4 players.
Here is how the rest of the top 10 shaped out…
Top 10 Most Polarized Lineups
| Year | Team | Top 4 OPS | Bottom 4 OPS | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Tigers | .925 | .603 | .322 |
| 1929 | Cubs | 1.044 | .723 | .321 |
| 2001 | Giants | 1.008 | .693 | .315 |
| 2004 | Cardinals | 1.043 | .728 | .315 |
| 1937 | Cardinals | .955 | .644 | .311 |
| 1930 | Phillies | .995 | .685 | .310 |
| 1927 | Yankees | 1.081 | .771 | .310 |
| 1911 | Tigers | .935 | .630 | .305 |
| 1937 | Yankees | 1.018 | .718 | .300 |
| 1996 | Mariners | 1.012 | .720 | .292 |
So what does this mean for the Tigers? Is this something they can recover from or get to they playoffs despite the polarizing numbers? Szymborski suggest that for the Tigers, something that may be working for them is that it is easier to upgrade a terrible hitter into an average hitter than it is to upgrade an average hitter into a great hitter. He also believes that even though Cleveland has been a good story this year, the Tigers should have the last laugh in the division race.
Then again there is always that second half collapse which the Tigers have been known for.
Source: ESPN.com
