Who belongs in the four team playoff?

I am a firm believer that there won’t be two teams from any conference in the inaugural college football playoff, especially the SEC. There is only one scenario that I can envision where two SEC teams will be in, but it won’t be because there are two one loss SEC teams left standing, more that the winners of the Big Ten, PAC 12, and Big 12 will have two losses, essentially knocking them out of the playoffs.

I envision the inaugural College Football playoff will go as follows:

1. The SEC Champion, whomever it be.
2. Undefeated Florida State or one loss Notre Dame, if neither exist, then neither.
3. Winner of Big 12 or Big Ten, whomever is ranked higher with only one loss.
4. One loss winner of PAC 12, or a one loss non-SEC Champion Mississippi State team who’s only loss to Alabama, who is the SEC Champion.

*All rankings listed below are the current AP Top 25 Rankings.

Type 1: The SEC Champion

Qualifiers:

#1 Mississippi State

• Record: 7-0
• Signature Wins: #4 Auburn and at #16 LSU
• Key Games Remaining: At #3 Alabama, at #7 Ole Miss, and SEC Championship Game (if qualified)
• If and only if they can run the gauntlet and win against Alabama and Ole Miss on the road then defeat yet another SEC power in the conference championship game, then they no doubt deserve to be in. I still am not convinced that they can do it, especially going to Tuscaloosa to beat a red-hot Alabama team.

#3 Alabama

• Record: 7-1
• Signature Wins: none
• Loss: At #7 Ole Miss
• Key Games Remaining: At #16 LSU, #1 Mississippi State, #4 Auburn, and SEC Championship.
• That remaining schedule is brutal. The only real easy week they have left is in three weeks when they take on Western Carolina. But if any team in America can run that gauntlet, it’s Nick Saban and Alabama. Only squeaking by a very bad Arkansas team and losing to the one still ranked team on their schedule is cause for concern, but if anyone could get in on reputation alone, it’s the Crimson Tide. If they win out, there is no way the selection committee doesn’t choose them as one of the four teams, but lose any other game along the way they are essentially done, unless a two loss team can qualify, which they would be top on that list.

#9 Georgia

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: @ Missouri
• Loss: At South Carolina (BAD)
• Key Games Remaining: #4 Auburn, Georgia Tech, and SEC Championship
• Georgia doesn’t have a hard game on the schedule except a home date with Auburn and Georgia Tech whom can beat anyone and lose to anyone because of that goofy triple option offense. Assuming they win out and defeat the SEC West champion in the conference championship game they will be the SEC chamipion with only one loss, which is the selection committee’s wet dream. Now, them defeating Auburn, which would knock out the Tigers and then defeating the likely SEC-West champion either Alabama or Mississippi State isn’t likely, but if they do, they’re in.

#4 Auburn

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: At #11 Kansas State and #16 LSU
• Loss: At #1 Mississippi State
• Key Games Remaining: At #9 Georgia, at #3 Alabama, and SEC Championship
• There is no way Auburn wins out, which would be necessary for them to qualify for the playoff because they already have one loss. Defeating Georgia and Alabama would disqualify both of those teams and drive the nail in the coffin of only one SEC team making the playoffs. They could still do it, but it isn’t likely. The SEC is just too good and they will knock each other out.

#7 Ole Miss

• Record: 7-1
• Signature Wins: #3 Alabama
• Loss: At #16 LSU
• Key Games Remaining: #4 Auburn, #1 Mississippi State, SEC Championship
• There’s too many good teams left on their schedule to say Ole Miss will win out, which will be almost required to make the playoff. It’s a shame, because they have the country’s best defense, allowing only 10.5 points per game in the SEC-West. Like the rest of the SEC-West, win out and you’re in for sure. One more blemish and Ole Miss will need a lot of help to get in. Although any team that can claim they defeated Alabama will have a strong case before the committee to put them into the final four.

 

Type 2: The ACC Champ or the Irish

Qualifiers

#2 Florida State

• Record: 7-0
• Signature Wins: #22 Clemson and #6 Notre Dame
• Key Games Remaining: vs Florida
• They don’t have anyone tough left on the schedule and only really had on tough opponent on paper all year in Notre Dame. Clemson is listed as a key win only because I wanted to find two for each team. However that Clemson win comes against their weakest squad in a decade, and FSU barely squeaked by in overtime. But you can’t not put in last year’s national champion if they have an undefeated record, so if FSU wins out, they’re in. If there is any loss in their remaining six games including the ACC Title game, I can’t foresee them getting in. Their strength of schedule is weak and the selection committee likely won’t want to put in FSU because they could lose their star QB to suspension anytime between then and now. I’m not even going to list the ACC Championship game as a key game remaining because FSU should pound whomever is selected to face them since the ACC is so weak.

#6 Notre Dame

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: Stanford
• Loss: At #2 Florida State
• Key Games Remaining: At #15 Arizona State and at USC
• The Fighting Irish have lost their one truly tough game so far on the road at Florida State. Despite what you think about the offensive pass interference call at the end that cost Notre Dame the game it still goes down as a loss. That especially hurts when the team that defeated you is your one high quality opponent on your schedule and they are also competing for one of the four playoff spots. If Notre Dame wins out, and there is no reason they shouldn’t, they need Florida State to lose to somebody or the Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC 12 champions to all have two losses in order to make it in.

 

Type 3: The “Big” Winner

Qualifiers

#8 Michigan State

• Record: 7-1
• Signature Wins: #17 Nebraska
• Loss: At #5 Oregon
• Key Games Remaining: #13 Ohio State and Big Ten Championship
• The strength of schedule metric is the biggest critic of the Spartans. However, the Spartans are decimating vastly inferior opponents on their schedule, with their closest victory being a two touchdown win on the road at Purdue. The almost colossal meltdown on national TV against Nebraska won’t help the Spartans with the eye test, but they are winning the games on their schedule. The week two defeat at Autzen Stadium against Oregon shouldn’t do them much harm, because they had the balls to put them on the schedule and nobody defeats Oregon in the non-conference when the game is played in Oregon and that’s a fact. Just look at the last 10 years of Oregon Football’s non-conference, you just don’t win at Autzen Stadium. Their one tough game on the schedule against Ohio State will come off a bye week so that will help them. The sad part is that they could win out, defeating all their opponents by double digits again and they won’t even get playoff consideration over a two loss SEC team.

 

#10 TCU

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: #19 Oklahoma,
• Loss: At #12 Baylor
• Key Games Remaining: At #20 West Virginia and #11 Kansas State
• The offense of TCU is quite awesome. Their least productive effort was a 30 point day in a victory against Minnesota during their second game of the year. Heck, they dropped 82 points last week against Texas Tech. However, their defense is a concern, allowing 58 points to Baylor and 33 points to Oklahoma. That leads me to believe that they could defeat anyone and lose to anyone which sets them up for a letdown in their remaining five games which would eliminate them from the playoff race, especially because the Big 12 doesn’t have a conference championship game to help get them the extra win.

 

#11 Kansas State

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: @ #19 Oklahoma
• Loss: #4 Auburn
• Key Games Remaining: At #10 TCU, at #20 West Virginia, and at 12 Baylor
• Those three remaining opponents on the road are going to be tough and with only one real cupcake left at home against Kansas means the Wildcats have to play flawless football the rest of the way otherwise, this could be a barely ranked 8-4 football team at the end of the year. If they win out, I would put them in over Michigan State for a final spot, but I don’t think that possibly could happen, because there is no way they win all of those final three key games all on the road, especially when two of them still have playoff aspirations.

 

#12 Baylor

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: vs #10 TCU
• Loss: At #20 West Virginia
• ‘Key Games Remaining: At #19 Oklahoma and #11 Kansas State
• The Bears will defeat the Sooners because the Oklahoma defense is leakier than a colander shot with some buckshot, but the Kansas State defense is good enough to hold them down enough to make it a game. They can make it into the playoffs assuming the selection committee doesn’t hold any bias against the no defense Big 12 type that routinely gets blown out on the big stage. They will have to win out and get some help to jump the teams ahead of them.

 

#13 Ohio State

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: none
• Loss: Virginia Tech
• Key Games Remaining: At #8 Michigan State and Big Ten Championship
• If they defeat the Spartans of Michigan State in two weeks, then win out all the way through the Big Ten title game the Buckeyes might just make it in. They don’t have a strong schedule whatsoever, playing only one ranked team the whole way. But at the same time, with the exception of the overtime victory against Penn State, all their wins have been blowouts. So they are beating the teams on the schedule, but at the same time, their non conference schedule is weak and they have a bad loss to Virginia Tech.  Again they could still find a way make it in, but not without some help.

 

#17 Nebraska

• Record: 7-1
• Signature Wins: none
• Loss: At #8 Michigan State
• ‘Key Games Remaining: At Wisconsin
• The only way that the Cornhuskers make it into real consideration is if both Michigan State and Ohio State have a complete meltdown and find ways to lose two of their remaining games. They could have a quality win on the schedule by the end assuming they make it to the Big Ten title game and win, but that still might not be enough to bolster the resume into playoff consideration.

Type #4: Everyone Else

Qualifiers:

 

#5 Oregon

• Record: 7-1
• Signature Wins: #8 Michigan State and at #25 UCLA
• Loss: #14 Arizona
• Key Games Remaining: At #18 Utah, Stanford, and PAC 12 Championship
• If Oregon wins out, they’re in. It is that simple. They will have at least three signature wins, a conference championship, and their only loss came to a ranked team. Plus they pass the eye test of being fun to watch and having a national audience because they are cool and people will tune in to watch them play on TV. If Oregon loses another game, they’re done. If a two loss team will qualify, it will be one from the SEC.

 

#14 Arizona

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: At #5 Oregon
• Loss: USC
• Key Games Remaining: At #25 UCLA, at #18 Utah, #15 Arizona State, and PAC 12 Championship
• They won’t suffer much in the strength of schedule or signature win category, but will struggle with overcoming a limited national exposure. They have a lot of touch games on the schedule and I don’t think they can emerge unscathed, which will be required to make the playoffs.

 

#15 Arizona State

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: Stanford and USC
• Loss: At #25 UCLA (blowout)
• Key Games Remaining: #18 Utah, #6 Notre Dame, at #14 Arizona, and PAC-12 Championship
• They haven’t defeated a quality team yet and were blown out by the one team on their schedule so far that is still ranked. Defeating Notre Dame, Arizona, and Utah will eliminate help them thin out their competition and give them enough quality wins to get consideration but they will also struggle with the national exposure problem. They are playing a game this weekend against a ranked Utah team, but the opening kickoff won’t be until after the eastern timezone has gone to bed for the night, so half the football watching population will only catch your game during the Sportscenter highlights. If they win out, they have a chance, but one slip up and the Sun Devils are done.

 

#18 Utah

• Record: 6-1
• Signature Wins: At #25 UCLA
• Loss: Washington State
• Key Games Remaining: At #15 Arizona State, #5 Oregon, #14 Arizona, and PAC-12 Championship Game
• That remaining schedule is a meat grinder, but if the Utes emerge unscathed then they deserve a shot at the big boys. They don’t suffer anymore from being in a crap conference, now belonging to the PAC-12. I don’t think they have a shot of running the gauntlet, but if they do, they will have proven that they are worthy of one of the four playoff spots.